Predicting the future? Be wary of those who do

Paul Krugman is an economist, who teaches at Princeton University and is a columnist for the New York Times. In the context of the “over the cliff” dynamics of the U.S. economy, he has warned us all that predicting the effect of “going over the cliff” or not “going over the hill” is very precarious. Krugman points out that our politicians and economic forecasters operate with limited information and questionable economic assumptions and theories.

Those who predict the future have a habit of missing their mark with incredible consistency. As I read the recent Krugman column, I was reminded of the endless stream of Christians, who keep predicting the end of the world or at least a soon return of Jesus to set things straight for the whole world. Seventy years ago, the predictors had me hooked. I was a devout teenager in the context of World War II. I now look back and ask how some very good people could have been so wrong. Much to my amazement a new corps of predictors is always waiting in the wings. We also have new crops of eager listeners. I am one of those who look with real interest at what might happen in 2013, but I hopefully do so with wisdom and information collected over the 70 years.

As I look at the possibilities of 2013, two realities are in place. First, change will take place. Life is not static or fixed. Life is always on the move. Second, as life moves, it never repeats itself. The so-called “lessons of history” are not always foolproof guides to the future.

Phyllis Tickle is a respected sociologist and observer of all things religious. She is a prolific writer and pundit and dares to take on difficult topics. Observers of the Christian churches are aware of rapid and significant changes that are taking place. The changes have been named. Emergent Christianity is now in our vocabulary; in fact it is a favorite topic for some. In her new book, Tickle attempts to describe what is going on.

In a sense, there is nothing new about emergence. History is littered with examples of unexpected changes in culture, religion and even science. These unexpected changes never come down from a hierarchy. Change that is being defined as emergent always comes from the bottom up. Similar emergent changes may pop up in unrelated places with no apparent relationship or explanation. Emergent movement is always sideways. When these unexpected phenomena meet one another, the result is greater than the sum of the parts. Results are unpredictable.

Church historians and sociologists say that we are now in the midst of such change. Tickle has chosen to try to describe what is going on. She argues that this is not a small happening. She believes that current emergent Christianity is bringing change that rivals the great Protestant Reformation in the 16th and 17th centuries BCE.

The growth of house churches is not to be equated with emergent Christianity. However, house churches are a vital part of what is happening. They illustrate the dynamics of what is going on. House churches are very difficult to study because there is no hierarchy through which to gain information. We are aware that house churches exist all around us, but we do not know exactly where they are or how many there are. Researchers say that at least 5 percent of worshipping Christians in America are gathering in homes rather than identifiable church buildings. The number could be as many as 10 percent. No organizational structure binds these entities together. Members from traditional churches are disappearing from the church rolls, but they are telling no one where they are going. To a house church is a strong possibility.

The typical house church is not led by a clergyperson. Leadership is shared. Worship is highly participatory. House churches are on their own in developing liturgies and worship modes. Vitality is the hallmark of houses churches. Being a part of a house church for a growing number of people is a felt religious experience and deeply personal. They have a unique appeal to the un-churched, the non-churched, and the de-churched. Diversity in the membership multiplies the vitality of house churches.

Where is this emergent Christianity taking its participants? If Tickle is on the right track, Christianity is headed for an immense re-configuration. The struggle between top down and bottom up is too intense to discover common ground. Inevitably emergent Christianity will grow by leaps and bounds. Traditional Christian structures will not disappear and will struggle to maintain their existence.

As a devout person with deep emotional ties to the church of the past, I pray for a rebirth, a revival in the churches that nurtured and blessed me. As a devout person I long for the vitality and energy that is being generated in the emergent church.

God has a challenge on her hands.

The Rev. Howard Bess is a retired American Baptist minister, who lives in Palmer. His email address is hdbss@mtaonline.net.

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