Publisher's Notebook: The Swami rides the Red Carpet through the general election

The General Elections are this Tuesday and everyone seems more than ready to put this election behind us. The Swami replaced his defective crystal ball from the October elections and is looking for a fresh start. I have a feeling he’ll do much better this go-round. My disclaimer; these are mere predictions and not endorsements.

The ‘if it walks like a duck’ race for the U.S. House of Representatives

Incumbent Don Young (R) vs Alyse Galvin (I) or is it (D)

Alyse Galvin is an Independent. She’s said it so much I think she’s starting to convince herself it’s true. Galvin walks the same party line as a Democrat, talks the same talking points as a Democrat, and takes the same campaign money as Democrat. She’s a Democrat. On the other hand, we all know exactly who Don Young is. At this point, the only person who could unseat Don Young maybe the Good Lord himself. I’m going with Don Young on this one and it won’t be as close as the polls that Galvin is touting show.

A November Surprise for the Governor’s race?

Mike Dunleavy (R) vs Mark Begich (D) vs Billy Toien (L)

If you were looking for some good old fashioned political mudslinging, then the Governor’s race didn’t disappoint. It started with the supposed October Surprise that never surfaced. Then the incumbent Bill Walker’s campaign fell apart after Byron Mallott’s alleged ‘inappropriate comments made to a female,’ which I personally believe Mallot needs to come clean about. How will we ever deal with harassment issues head-on if our political leaders won’t face the music? Dunleavy has lead this race from the beginning and not looked back. The candidate’s positions are very clear. Are you willing to pay for bigger government? Are you willing to endure more regulations at a time when the federal government is finally loosening them up? I don’t think the majority of Alaskans are. Get ready to tighten your belts. Here comes penny pinching Mike Dunleavy for the next four years. Dunleavy wins wire-to-wire.

The fighter pilot soars for a full term for State Senate Seat District E

Mike Shower (R) vs Susan Kay (D)

This won’t be close. Shower showed is might in the Republican primary race and Kay just doesn’t have the political clout to beat him. Nobody would at this point except for maybe the former Senator who is now running for Governor. No more playing coy for the former fighter pilot. He has a partial term under his belt so it will be interesting to watch him in action this coming session. Shower takes this one in a runaway.

A nasty race in the Primary turns to a yawner in the Generals

George Rauscher (R) vs James Squyres (R) Petition Nominee vs Bill Johnson (D)

Rauscher endured a nasty primary race from some outside interests. When is a conservative not conservative enough? When abortion is the political football. Rauscher’s conservatism passes the smell test but he doesn’t hardline the abortion issue. Turns out he’s actually reasonable on the topic. Rauscher still easily won his primary and will easily win the general. One piece of advice to Rauscher, though — please refrain from putting goofy signs on your door in Juneau.

The ‘you can’t touch this’ race. State Representative District 8

Mark Neuman (R) vs James Chesbro (D) vs Mark Fish (L)

Neuman is proving to be untouchable in his district. His constituents for the most part love him. There’s not much else to say about this one. Neuman in a runaway.

The ‘nice gals finish second’ race. State Representative District 11

Eileen Patterson (D) vs DeLena Johnson (R)

Eileen Patterson needed to come to the table with more than she did. She was a one-trick pony with the opioids issue — a very important issue — but Johnson is fitting in well with the Mat-Su delegation. Johnson, Cathy Tilton, and Colleen Sullivan-Leonard are like the Ya-Ya Sisterhood of Alaska politics. They’re a pretty strong team. Patterson has the best chance of unseating one of the representatives in this coalition but she won’t have enough to do it. Johnson wins but Patterson receives enough votes to make it respectable.

The ‘participation trophy’ race, State Representative District 12

Cathy Tilton (R) vs Stephany Jeffers (U)

Jeffers is claiming roads and sexual assault for her campaign platform. Both need to be swiftly addressed. The flaw in her platform really is that everyone running has those issues as drivers plus much more. If you’re going to unseat an incumbent you have to attack their record. Jeffers never did. She never had anything negative to say about her opponent. She spoke to the bridge fiasco last year as a problem but aside from building the Knik-Arm Bridge, what else can be done? Tilton has too much experience and support to be unseated. Tilton will win by probably the largest margin of any of the Representative races.

‘Padding my stats’ race State Representative District 7

Colleen Sullivan-Leonard (R) vs write-in

Fresh off the throttling I took from the Mat-Su Valley elections in October — four out of nine correct — I did learn one valuable lesson: project the candidates running unopposed and pad your stats. I should have projected George McKee winning District 3; that would have gotten me to .500.

Not making that mistake again. My pick: Leonard beats write-in.

‘Closest of calls’ race House Representative District 10

David Eastman (R) vs Doyle Holmes (R) vs Patricia Faye-Brazel

The race really comes down to Eastman vs Holmes. Eastman has been a polarizing figure in his first term. He’s been under the skin of almost everyone, including his fellow Mat-Su delegation. Holmes comes with his own history in the district that hasn’t always been flattering. What will District 10 voters do? I think there is enough people of influence who have grown tired of Eastman’s shenanigans that a change will be made. Holmes will win by the slightest of margins.

Stand for Salmon vs Stand for Alaska

There is no chance that the Stand for Salmon folks will get their way on this one. This is one reason that Mark Begich will lose the Governor’s race. I’m projecting 70 percent ‘no’ votes on Proposition 1.

Other predictions

Pete Kelley defeats Scott Kawasaki for Senate Seat A.

Gabrielle Ledoux doesn’t find another trailer home that has 17 voters in it.

Gabriella Ledoux loses House District 15.

Republicans take back control of the House.

The Green Bay Packers defeat the New England Patriots tonight. Yes, I’m a homer on this pick.