Race for playoffs wide open

WASILLA — Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, only one thing is known in the Railbelt Conference.

By late Saturday afternoon, there will be three Railbelt teams advancing to the postseason.

Which teams?

At this point, it’s anyone’s guess.

As impossible as it might seem, after seven weeks of play all five Railbelt teams are not only alive in the playoff race, but all five Railbelt teams still have a shot at a conference title. Granted, some crazy things would have to happen for either Wasilla (1-2) or West Valley (1-2) to claim Railbelt gold, but it’s been a crazy season.

Here is where we stand before tonight’s action:

• Colony (2-1) sits on top of the Railbelt and holds the head-to-head tiebreaker (2-1) over Palmer, which suffered a 31-20 loss to the Knights last week.

• Lathrop (2-2), done with Railbelt play, is currently in third place.

• West Valley and Wasilla are both 1-2, but the Wolfpack own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Railbelt receives three automatic bids to the state tournament, but those will not be decided until two games go final. Wasilla hosts Palmer in the annual Potato Bowl tonight at 7 p.m. at Veteran’s Memorial Field. Colony is in Fairbanks to play West Valley Saturday at 1 p.m.

Colony, which has won 2 of 3 after opening it’s season 0-4, is in the driver’s seat. With a win Saturday (regardless of what happens tonight at WHS), Colony would win its first Railbelt title since 2010.

If Colony and Palmer both win, the Knights, Moose and Lathrop would finish first through third in the conference, and Wasilla and West Valley would be eliminated.

That’s probably the simplest scenario. After that, things get complicated.

Before we get into 14 other possibilities (yes there are 15 different possibilities for the rankings depending on what happens in Week 8), let’s take a look at the list of tiebreakers listed in the region bylaws.

1. Record in conference; 2. head-to-head play; 3. common opponents in and out of conference among tied teams; 4. point differential (scored minus allowed) in games between tied teams; 5. fewest points allowed in games between the tied teams; 6. fewest points allowed in conference.

A good fact to remember — once one tie in a three-, four- or even five-way tie is broken, you go back up to the start of the list of tiebreakers with the remaining teams and work your way down again.

So, why am I spending so much time on this?

Well, there’s a realistic possibility that there could be a three-way tie for second in the Railbelt. There also could be a five-way tie.

Yes, if Wasilla and West Valley both win at home this weekend, all five teams would be left at 2-2.

Longtime Palmer head coach Rod Christiansen said he’s not that surprised.

“In most years, or at least every other year, we have some kind of tiebreaker for at least one of the seeds. Because our conference is so small, we knew this was possible,” Christiansen said Thursday. “Competition-wise, we’re all very close.”

Here are the scenarios:

• Colony win and Palmer win: Again, this is the easiest. Colony wins conference with 3-1 record. Palmer is runner up at 3-1. Lathrop third at 2-2.

• Colony win and Palmer loss: Colony would win conference. Lathrop, Palmer and Wasilla would be left in three-way tie, and it would come down to point differential among tied teams. Palmer currently sits at +21, Lathrop at +9 and Wasilla at -8. Wasilla would need to outscore Palmer by 17 or more points to get the No. 2 seed. Palmer and Lathrop would be left tied, with PHS getting the No. 3 seed thanks to head-to-head play. If Wasilla wins by 16 or less, Palmer would stay ahead of WHS in point differential and earn the No. 2 seed. That leaves Lathrop and Wasilla tied, and Lathrop gets the No. 3 seed thanks to head-to-head.

• Palmer win and Colony loss: Palmer would win conference with 3-1 record. Colony, Lathrop and West Valley would all be tied at 2-2. The first tiebreaker used would be common opponents outside of conference. North Pole has beat Colony and West Valley already, and plays Lathrop tonight. If these teams are tied at 2-2 and Lathrop beats North Pole, Lathrop would be the No. 2 seed, leaving West Valley and Colony tied. West Valley would get the No. 3 seed due to head-to-head. If North Pole beats Lathrop, it would go to point differential involving tied teams. Lathrop stands at +22, Colony is at +5 and West Valley is at -27. If West Valley wants the No. 2 seed, the Wolfpack need to win by 50 or more to jump Lathrop in the point differential. If that happens, Colony would be the No. 2 seed, beating Lathrop in head-to-head. If West Valley wins by 49 or less, Lathrop is the No. 2 seed. That would also eliminate Colony, because West Valley would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over CHS and get the third seed.

Confused? Dizzy? That’s nothing.

• Wasilla win and West Valley win: Every team in the conference is at 2-2, and point differential among tied teams would decide the seeding. About 10 different things could happen, depending on who scores what tonight and Saturday. Every team would be left with a shot at the No. 1 seed. Every team could be eliminated in at least one scenario. And one scenario gives the Valley a clean sweep of the top 3, but Wasilla would have to beat Palmer by 18 or more and West Valley would have to win by 38 or more.

Now, I’m tired.

Now for the games.

Both Palmer and Wasilla are trying to rebound from losses with a win tonight at Wasilla High. There’s also the battle for the coveted Mayor’s Cup in the 35th annual Potato Bowl. Palmer enters the game 25-9 in Potato Bowl play, and Wasilla boasts a 10-24 Potato Bowl record. The 1984 game remains contested. The rivals play twice that year, splitting the season series. Each school claims its win as the real Potato Bowl.

Palmer won 41-12 last year, and Wasilla clinched a Railbelt title with a 23-22 victory at WHS in the 2011 Potato Bowl.

Palmer led 20-7 last week, but Colony rallied to beat the Moose 31-20. It marked Palmer’s first loss in Railbelt play since the 2011 Potato Bowl.

Wasilla is returning to Railbelt action after a pair of nonconference games. The Warriors beat Houston in Week 6, but suffered a loss to medium-schools power Juneau-Douglas last Friday.

Colony will try to cap a big second half of its regular season. The Knights finished 0-4 in nonconference, but have scored big Railbelt wins over Lathrop and Palmer. Senior quarterback Bryce Niver leads his team in both passing (1,141 yards and 14 touchdowns) and rushing (572 yards and eight touchdowns).