Reason for concern over salmon stocks

With some hunting seasons already started and others poised to open tomorrow, let’s take a look at how well our Northern District salmon returns are faring this year. All of the figures I quote are taken directly from various Commercial Fisheries Division or Sport Fish Division fish counts posted as of Aug. 6 on the respective divisions’ websites. Some of the sockeye figures are current as of Aug. 3.

Let’s start with king salmon. On Aug. 6, exactly three kings were counted through the Deshka River Weir. Don’t panic — the 2013 season total through the Deshka weir is 18,338 fish. The biological escapement goal, or BEG, for the Deshka ranges from 13,000 to 28,000 chinooks. Bottom line, the Deshka made its king salmon escapement for the year.

Little Susitna River king counts have reached 2,304. The historical escapement range at this weir site has been around 2,400 to 2,600 fish, but since the weir has only just been reinstated after nearly 20 years of being located another 40 miles upriver, ADF&G has been using post-season aerial counts as an index of king escapements. The aerial counts aren’t available yet, so the official assessment of escapement hasn’t been made. I suspect the department will say the Little Susitna made its king salmon escapement for 2013.

Those are the only two sites with king salmon weir counts posted for the Northern District.

Sockeye salmon runs are about over, so how did the Northern District fare with that species? The Fish Creek weir crew passed 152 reds on Aug. 6 for a season cumulative total to that date of 17,380 fish. The sustainable escapement goal, or SEG, for Fish Creek sockeye ranges from 20,000 to 70,000 fish. If 50,000 fish have passed or are projected to pass the weir by a certain timeframe, the personal use dipnet fishery can be opened by emergency order. I don’t think Fish Creek reds will even make minimum escapement goals, let alone the trigger point for a dipnet fishery. Besides, we’re already way beyond the timeframe where a personal use fishery could occur.

The Susitna-Yentna sockeye escapements are based on the weir counts of sockeye at three lakes in the system — two off the Yentna (Chelatna and Judd Lakes) and one off the Susitna (Larson Lake). The Larson Lake weir count is 18,629 sockeye as of Aug. 3. The Larson Lake SEG is 15,000 to 50,000 fish. The Chelatna Lake count is 66,912 fish as of Aug, 6 with an SEG of 20,000 to 65,000 sockeyes. Both these systems have made their escapements, one marginally and the other in slight excess.

The Judd Lake count is 10,502 sockeyes as of Aug. 6. Judd Lake’s SEG is 25,000 to 55,000 sockeye. This system has failed to make its 2013 minimum escapement goal. Since ADF&G changed the methodology for measuring sockeye escapements into the Susitna-Yentna system in 2009, at least one of the three lakes used as a barometer has failed to make minimum escapement every year. To me, that means the Susitna-Yentna systems have failed to make sockeye salmon escapement goals every year since 2009. Not good!

Coho are worse. The Central District commercial fleets harvested 179,000 coho as of Aug. 7 postings. Little Susitna coho counts through the weir as of Aug. 6 total 4,072 fish. The established BEG for Little Susitna coho is 10,100 to 17,700 fish. Right now, this is the best sport coho fishing in the Valley, according to the weekly fishing forecast released this past Wednesday by the Sport Fish Division folks in Palmer.

The Fish Creek coho count was 1,081 fish on Aug. 6, with an SEG of 1,200 to 4,400 fish. If just making minimum escapement numbers is good enough, this system might make it. The Deshka River coho counts reached a whopping 711 fish on Aug. 6. At this point in time, the Deshka doesn’t have either an SEG or BEG escapement goal for coho. Don’t ask me why, ask Fish and Game.

Once the aerial index counts are in for king salmon, probably another three or four systems will be eligible to be declared stocks of concern. We already have six stocks holding that status. The Susitna-Yentna sockeye counts show no progress toward coming out of its stock of concern designation assigned in 2008. The department’s action plan to bring that stock back to a healthy condition is not working. The Little Susitna coho will be eligible for a stock of concern designation. Will things ever improve?

Howard Delo is a retired fisheries biologist with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. You can leave him a message by emailing sports@frontiersman.com.