Republicans can defeat Peltola or RCV — but not both

Nick Begich can win Alaska’s congressional race this year. But it might seem ironic that one of the reasons why is ranked choice voting — which is more likely to help, not hurt, his chances of victory. Not only can RCV help him defeat Mary Peltola, but by embracing how to campaign with it, Begich will also be teaching voters on the right how to use the system effectively. How, you ask? The answer is John Wayne Howe, the Alaskan Independence Party (AIP) candidate for Congress. Under the old system, Howe would have been a spoiler candidate. Under this system, he could be the key to Begich’s victory.

The AIP, like most third-party and independent groups, supports RCV because it allows their voters to support outsider candidates without "throwing away" their vote. Begich can appeal to these voters, asking them to rank him second. If neither he nor Peltola reaches 50% in the first round, Howe’s votes will be redistributed — and the advantage Begich gains from them could make a critical difference.

At first glance, it seems natural that Begich would capture the lion’s share of AIP votes. However, if the Republican Party remains too vocal in its opposition to RCV — or worse, encourages voters to ignore the system — Begich’s advantage will shrink, and Peltola’s will grow. The best thing Begich can do is embrace RCV and explain to conservative voters how it works, urging them to look past their fear and mistrust that many Republicans are spreading.

The Alaskan Independence Party is the third largest party in the state by voter registration, with over 18,000 members. It’s one of the most successful third parties in the country, with a history of running in big races and influencing the results. John Wayne Howe has long been involved with the AIP, running for various offices over the years. In 2020, he was on the general election ballot for the U.S. Senate, receiving more than 16,000 votes — just under 5% of the total vote! And that was under the old system, when AIP voters knew their choice between the major candidates would ultimately be discarded. With RCV, these votes can still count, and Howe’s supporters may feel even more empowered to show up at the polls.

In 2020, Dan Sullivan won his Senate race by a large enough margin to render Howe’s candidacy irrelevant to Sullivan’s chances of winning. That may not be the case for Begich in his House race this year. This being the reality, AIP and other voices outside the establishment should be celebrated and welcomed into Alaska’s political process — particularly Howe’s, given his and his party’s popularity relative to the competition. RCV is designed to make their participation matter.

It’s worth noting that John Wayne Howe might not have been on the ballot if Republicans hadn’t pressured candidates like President Trump’s endorsee Nancy Dahlstrom and Matthew Salisbury to drop out of the race. Many Republicans are still wary of RCV, remembering how infighting between two Republican candidates in 2022 helped Peltola win. But that’s the point — the infighting was the problem, not RCV. As conservative voters learn about the system, their worries can and should fade. Some of Dahlstrom’s supporters, for example, are unhappy about the way she was forced out, but the same frustration occurs in any primary where candidates from the same party face off. The difference in Alaska’s system is that with RCV, Begich and Dahlstrom could have encouraged their supporters to rank each other second. We need more voices and competition on the right to beat back the left, and this strategy would have engaged more Republicans while broadening the party’s chances of winning.

Democrats have already figured out that RCV has the potential to bring in new progressive independents and third-party voters. I believe that Republicans have a golden opportunity now to discover the same with new conservative independents and third-party voters such as John Wayne Howe and the AIP. If they blow it, it’s on them — not on RCV.

Brian McMurray has been a State Lead with the Forward Party since its inception in 2022. He was born and raised in Western PA, but is now based in Anchorage. He works in the solar industry and has eight years experience in the field.