Retailers hoping for jolly $eason

War with Iraq, growing unemployment rates and an unstable economy would figure to be a nightmare for retailers this holiday season, but the outlook varies, depending on who you ask.

Of course, the biggest problem facing retailers this holiday season is the fact there are only 26 shopping days from Thanksgiving to Christmas, the least amount of days that can happen. Depending on the day Thanksgiving falls on, there can be anywhere between 32 and 26 shopping days.

"Holiday season is traditionally considered to be from the day after Thanksgiving to Christmas," said Richard Feinberg, a Purdue University professor of consumer sciences. "No law says that you must count this as the official season, though. In fact, the shopping seasons start earlier and earlier as retailers realize they cannot wait for consumers to come into their stores."

Feinberg said he expects the holiday season to lag.

"Holiday sales have more to do with consumer mood and economic situation than in the number of days, and these indicators are not good," Feinberg said.

"There is less growth in Americans' disposable income and high economic uncertainty. I estimate that holiday spending growth rates will be in the low single digits, and for most retailers, less than last year," Feinberg added.

But others disagree with that assessment.

Ernst & Young, one of the largest economic firms in the country, suggests that holiday spending will be better than last year.

Taking into account 11 years of research, including stock market performance, consumer confidence, unemployment rates and historical relationships between retailers and customers, analysts at Ernst & Young are predicting a 4.8-percent increase in holiday spending, as compared to last year's 3.9-percent increase. The last really good holiday season came in 1992, when there was a 9.2-percent increase from the 1991 holiday season. Since then, the growth rate has been in the low single digits.

"At first we were surprised by this relatively buoyant forecast in the face of uncertainties in the global economy and in foreign affairs, but after reviewing the underlying data, we believe there is cause for optimism," said Jay McIntosh, the Americas director of Ernst & Young's Consumer Products group.

Of all the experts, however, the ones who know the most are Joe Shopper and his wife, Sally Shopper. The regular people on the street often are the best indicators of how things will go for retailers, because they are the people spending money.

"I don't know. I think I'll probably spend about as much as I did last year," Palmer's Dori Greer said. "My family is in about the same situation as we were in last year money-wise. Every year, Christmas gets more and more expensive. We have a budget and we stick to it."

Wasilla resident Francis Bell said her family will probably spend more this year than last, based on a number of things.

"Last year, my husband was laid off and money was really tight," Bell said. "I think there was a lot of hesitation to spend money last year because it was right after the terrorist attacks, and you didn't know what was going to happen.

"This year, my husband and I are both working good jobs and everything is more stable for us," Bell added. "But when you can't spend a lot for Christmas, like we couldn't last year, you realize how corporate the holiday is becoming. The real meaning of Christmas is money, money, money to most people."

While spending may be up, retailers may actually see a bit of decrease, industry experts warned. That's because the role of online shopping has steadily increased for the public. More and more money is being spent through online stores, which means "box stores" could see minimal growth.

"Oh yeah, I'm buying stuff online," Greer said. "Even with having to pay the shipping, I can find stuff so much cheaper. The secret is buying everything all at once, though. You can't order three things, pay for the shipping, and then order three more things next week and pay for the shipping again. I do it all at once, in one big order."

Wasilla resident Hunter Garlin said his entire holiday shopping takes place in front of his computer.

"It's the only time I do any shopping, and I can't handle the crowds," Garlin said. "I'm not much of a mall guy. It's probably been 10 years since I went to the mall. I've got a list from my wife and I sit down, punch the stores in the Internet and buy them. I can be done in 20 minutes. It beats fighting everyone at the stores."