SALES PITCH

MAT-SU — While the rest of the United States battles a recession and the government approves billions of dollars to bailout financially strapped industries, the Mat-Su Valley economy continues to grow.

Retail jobs have fallen steadily nationwide since December 2007, but have grown in the Valley, said Neal Fried, an economist with the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

“The nation’s economy has been losing jobs every month since 2007, but (Alaska) grew jobs every month in 2008,” he said. “We ended 2008 quite the exception, and the Valley is included in that.”

In the third quarter of 2008, Mat-Su Valley retail jobs grew by 435 over the same period in 2007, from 3,363 to 3,798, Fried said. Conversely, Anchorage lost about 100 retail jobs.

“When you look nationally, retail employment was falling every month, but it was still growing in (the Valley) in absolute terms,” he said. “That’s very good. In fact, the Valley grew more than the statewide average, which means that almost all the state’s growth in retail was in the Mat-Su.”

Although a vibrant retail economy is a good sign, figures from the fourth quarter of 2008 won’t be in until the end of January. Until then, the city of Wasilla is being cautious about whether the Valley’s retail economy will continue to buck the national trend, said Marvin Yoder, deputy city administrator.

“We’ve been really watching that carefully, because we’re all concerned (the national wave) may catch up to us,” he said. “Yeah, we’re up a little bit, but most of that was from July 1 and the December numbers aren’t in.”

Uncertain about what 2009 may bring for the local economy, “We’re kind of trying to feel our way along,” Yoder said. “At this point in time, there’s no kind-of trend. Nobody really knows right now, and we probably won’t know for a little bit.”

One factor that may bode well for the Valley economy in 2009 is if construction begins on the new prison facility at Point MacKenzie, Yoder said. “With the borough selling its (prison) bonds, then they start employing 300 or 400 workers. For our economy, that’s a big number,” he said. “Those 300 jobs in a bigger town like Anchorage is not that big, but for here it is.”

Palmer and Wasilla city officials have tabbed enticing higher-paying industries to the Valley as long-term economic goals, and a strong retail sector can be a selling point to make that happen, said Randi Perlman, interim director for the Greater Palmer Chamber of Commerce.

“Generally speaking, Alaska’s sort of insulated from the rest of the country, and that includes retail,” she said. “We have so many small businesses and nonprofits here that most of the large, corporate (failures) are not affecting us.”

Although retail jobs generally aren’t considered high-paying, the growth of employment here also includes more management positions that do pay well, said Cheryl Metiva, executive director for the Greater Wasilla Chamber of Commerce.

That Anchorage is losing retail jobs while the Valley is gaining also is an indicator that more Valley residents are shopping closer to home rather than commuting to Anchorage, Fried said. Also, the Valley’s retail jobs are growing at a faster rate than population.

“That means you’re getting a double bump,” Fried said. “Nationally, retail is in incredibly rough shape. The question is, what’s happening here? And the answer is I don’t really know.”

One reason the Valley seems immune to the national retail trend is the strength of the state’s oil industry, Fried said.

“Our oil sector has been very robust and the Valley is home to lots of people who work on the North Slope,” he said. “The big question now is what’s to come. That’s more difficult to answer.”

That’s the question that has officials at Wasilla City Hall being cautious about maintaining strong retail through 2009 and beyond, Yoder said.

“It’s been really curious for us to figure out where that’s at,” he said. “There are several places here in the city where there are empty shops.”

When it comes to economic forecasting, Yoder said the city “would rather be surprised up than down.”

Contact Greg Johnson at greg.johnson@frontiersman.com or 352-2269.