SPECTRUM: Time for better salmon management

On March 5, 2018 I learned from the chairman of our Mat-Su Borough Fish and Wildlife Commission that Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) Commissar Sam Cotten had spoken to him concerning a possible total emergency closure of all Northern Cook Inlet / Mat-Su Valley king salmon fisheries -- Beginning at the Start of the Season. I could hardly believe what I was hearing.

As a sport salmon fishing business owner, I had been in constant contact with several ADF&G staff members at the Palmer office since November 2017 in an effort to learn what 2018 Mat-Su sport king salmon fishing regulations would likely be. During several conversations, I had specifically asked what the department's 2018 Deshka River king salmon projection was -- and then when it would be available. As I write on March 10, the 2018 Deshka River king salmon projection is still a closely-guarded department secret, that has been strictly kept from the public. Why? Why are the Kenai River king salmon projections and sport fishing regulations (which allow fishing according to a management plan) already released, the Copper River drainage projection and sport regulations which allow sport fishing already released, and the entire Susitna River drainage, where the Department is considering a TOTAL CLOSURE of ALL KING SALMON FISHING there is no mention of the possible total closure until March 5? If someone were to brainstorm how to most severely damage Northern Cook Inlet/Mat-Su sport fisheries and how to destroy their huge economic impact for Southcentral Alaska this would be a great place to start.

Meeting with Commissioner Cotten and Director Brookover

Total closure of Northern Cook Inlet king salmon is an emergency situation that needs prioritization to be dealt with in a careful and considerate manner. I e-mailed Commissioner Cotton and Director Brookover and along with Ben Allen travelled into the Alaska Board of Fisheries Meeting on March 6 in an attempt to first gain clarity on the issue and possibly promote options other than total closure. Fortunately Commissioner Cotten and Director Brookover were able to meet and have two long conversations with us during breaks (they may not have had any lunch). Concerning Northern Cook Inlet king salmon fisheries -- we came to consensus that the hatchery produced sport king salmon fisheries at Eklutna Tailrace and Ship Creek should continue under standard 2018 regulations. We came to consensus that such late notice of preseason projections, preseason sportfishing restrictions, and especially a total closure is unacceptable to sport fishing businesses and participants. Director Brookover said he would talk to sport fish staff about prioritizing an earlier release date for future Deshka River king salmon projections, and since commercial fish division was releasing their sockeye projection in November, he would see if sport fish staff could prioritize and match that release timing. We discussed the need for a king salmon management plan for the Deshka River and perhaps all of the Susitna River drainage to provide more regulatory certainty and advance notice to sport fishing related businesses and participants of potential regulatory restrictions, closures, or liberalizations in response to a preseason king salmon projection or in season shortage or surplus of harvestable king salmon. Commissioner Cotten and Director Brookover were in consensus about working with the public on a Deshka / Susitna drainage management plan that could then be adopted by the Board of Fisheries through a proposal at the next Upper Cook Inlet meeting.

Concerning a 2018 Total King Salmon Closure to start the season: Upfront Commissioner Cotten made it clear he was also talking about a total closure of the Northern District king salmon fishery in addition to sport fishing. We did not discuss any regulatory potential impact on the Tyonek subsistence king salmon fishery, the Big River commercial sockeye salmon fishery and its king salmon cap, or the Upper Cook Inlet marine sport king salmon fishery. Ben and I mentioned in our opinion that a total closure at the start of the season, based on a preseason projection, and announced this late in the year (March) seemed to be a radical change from the department's recent past management practices. Commissioner Cotten stated his position that the department had in fact been managing the fishery for the past 5 years based on preseason projections -- with the yearly Deshka projection being a determining factor in what preseason restrictions were applied to the Susitna River drainage king salmon fisheries. The Commissioner's stated position was that he could not see allowing a fishery with a projection so small there may not be enough fish to meet spawning escapement needs. The Commissioner mentioned the relative accuracy of the department's Deshka River projections, and if anything he was choosing to err on the side of conservation. The Commissioner's position is an admirable position -- erring on the side of conservation is inline with Alaska's Sustainable Salmon Fisheries Policy and a position that the Matanuska -- Susitna Borough Fish and Wildlife Commission has been advocating should be used more often in Alaska fisheries management. Some sport anglers may remember in 2017 the Department projected a low Copper River king salmon return and closed Copper River king salmon sport fisheries at the start of the season. The sport fishery took an unnecessary hit, as king salmon showed up in much greater than forecasted numbers, but escapement needs were met.

Drainage-wide and area-wide Performance

Little Willow Creek was the only king salmon spawning escapement goal achieved in the entire Susitna River drainage during the 2017 season. The department allowed standard in the book regulation for Deshka River for most of the 2017 season -- this included use of bait starting June 1 and a 5-king salmon seasonal limit. If the Deshka fishery had started without the use of bait and with a 2-king salmon seasonal limit, there is a possibility the Deshka goal may have been achieved. Such restrictions likely would have also, to an unknown extent, increased king salmon escapements to Susitna River tributaries upstream of Deshka River. The stand alone Little Susitna River king salmon escapement goal was the only other Northern Cook inlet king salmon escapement goal achieved in 2017, following a June 23 sportfishing closure.

The Dilemma and Solution

The state constitution calls for natural resources to be managed for sustainability (something we all should be able to agree on), but management is also tasked with providing maximum benefit from the resource. This is not the first time such a management dilemma has occurred, and fortunately for us, in addition to the Deshka River king salmon projection (which has alerted Commissioner Cotton of the significant possibility of an abnormally low king salmon return) the department has at its disposal, three extremely powerful in season management tools: a lower Susitna River mark / recapture program, Deshka River Weir, and Little Susitna River Weir. These tools are expensive to operate, but precisely what we need at this time to provide a reasonable sport fishery, while at the same time minimizing the risk of over harvest. The preseason projection (developed from Deshka River weir data) has alerted both the commercial and sport fish managers that responsible preseason restrictions are called for. Responsible restrictions allow the season to start on time in a conservative manner. Sam Ivey (the area sport fish manager) has indicated that if the season were started with similar restrictions to what we've had in the past 5 years, he would closely monitor both the Susitna River mark / recapture data and Deshka River Weir data. Already alerted to the possibility of a low return, Manager Ivey has stated he would err on the side of conservation with further fishery restriction or even king salmon fishing closure -- based on available data -- by the quartile point of average Deshka River weir passage (approximately June 12 - 13).

Risk

Would there be some risk Deshka River and other king salmon escapements might not be achieved? Of course there would, as every season there is risk the escapement goal may not be attained, so a better question is would this be a reasonable risk? I would contend that if we want to provide any kind of reasonable Mat-Su king salmon sport fishing opportunity during the 2018 season -- then this risk is entirely reasonable. Even if the 2018 king return is low in the Susitna River drainage the sport fishery could be closed at a point after which 3/4 of the Deshka River king salmon escapement normally swims past the weir.

This is not some novel approach. It is a similar approach to how Kenai and Kasilof sockeye salmon stock are managed for the benefit of the commercial industry. It is similar to how the Susitna King salmon have been managed for the past 5 years, however it would be a more cautious approach. It fully utilizes the expensive in season management tools we have in place to maximize benefit while minimizing risk.

The approach I've outlined would be a much more conservative approach than how Stock of Concern Susitna River sockeye salmon are currently managed for the commercial industry -- where there is currently no timely inseason assessment and where the far upstream 3-weir Susitna sockeye salmon escapement goal has been missed much more frequently than the Deshka River king salmon goal.

Could we please get on with the process, and would the Commissioner please allow the Department to issue some reasonable and responsible king salmon regulations that allow us to start the season on time?

By the way -- in the midst of this distraction --- how many of you noticed that the Alaska Board of Fisheries reversed its earlier position and voted to change the next Upper Cook Inlet Board of Fisheries location from Anchorage to the Kenai Peninsula?

Andy Couch, owner Fishtale River Guides