SPECTRUM: Walker likely to run for second term, but does he still have a lane?

Hi. I was wondering if you had a moment to talk about the upcoming elections. Did you just stab your eyes out and run away? You probably should have done that in reverse order.

I know. We just wrapped up the most brutal presidential election still being relitigated 24/7. I'm not going to talk about that.

2018 is going to host a fascinating (I'll use different words later) gubernatorial race. It will be the first – maybe only – stress test for Alaska's first experiment with an independent governor. Last week, Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott (D-Alaska) said he and Gov. Bill Walker (I-Alaska) are likely going to pursue a second term.

How the two ended up on a ticket together in the first place is a story of political necessity. Walker and Mallott originally ran for governor against each other and against incumbent Gov. Sean Parnell (R-Alaska), seeking his second full term. Walker calculated he couldn't beat Parnell in the primary, so he ran as an independent – while maintaining his GOP affiliation.

Parnell clocked 80,903 votes for the GOP in that primary, which is restricted to Republicans. On the Democratic ballot – open also to Libertarians and independents – Mallott tallied roughly half of that, making it increasingly clear that Parnell would skate to victory. Even if it was a two-way race between teams red and blue.

27 percent of Alaskans are registered Republicans, 15 percent are Democrats, and 53 percent are independents. That likely fueled Mallott's hopes that the independent voting bloc represented a cache of winnable votes. It shouldn't have.

The independent vote divides into three subsets. The first, independents too liberal for the Democratic Party or nonconformist. The second, their ideological counterparts, who think the GOP is too moderate or establishment. The splits probably are similar to registered Democrats and Republicans. The third group is nonpartisans, who believe they don't bear any political bias. They “call it as they see it,” professing to adjudicate issues and candidates outside of party identification. Whether their self-assessments match their voting behavior is anyone's guess.

Nonpartisans are most at risk of slipping through the cracks. They tend to be the least reliable voters, and campaigns prioritize outreach based on how likely someone will vote and, more importantly, if they will vote for them. (More and more campaigns are caring about convincing the least amount of people needed to win, so if they actually have to earn your vote, head to the back of the line.)

Walker and Mallott adjusted to the math and announced the formation of a “unity ticket” after the primary. Walker ditched the (-R) after his name atop the ticket with Mallott as his governor lite. They pledged to work across all aisles. Walker said at the announcement that “Partisan politics would have no place” in his administration. It just would have a place virtually everywhere outside of it, we'd soon discover. It didn't take long.

"Congratulations to Bill Walker and Byron Mallott for confirming what Alaskans already knew: they are two peas in a Democrat pod,” Parnell answered on Facebook. “Bill and Byron just confirmed they are part of Alaska's Team Obama."

Walker, a lifelong Republican who dreams of endless oil pipelines; who gathered signatures for the parental notification initiative requiring physicians to give notice to parents of a minor seeking an abortion (the Alaska Supreme Court declared the law unconstitutional last year). Walker, who does not support marriage equality, continued Parnell's legal challenge to the decision in Obergefell v. Hodges. Team Obama?

These very-not-liberal stances made the “unity ticket” a bitter pill to swallow for many Democrats, and that frustration has only increased in the lead up to next year's election. Alaska Democratic Party Executive Director Jay Parmley told KTVA's Liz Raines last week that parties generally sided with the incumbent. But this incumbent, despite boiler plate rhetoric from his detractors, is not a Democrat. “There may be other Democrats thinking about it and talking about [running],” Parmley added, fueling theories that former U.S. Senator Mark Begich might jump in.

On social media, partisans on the left are already demanding a Democratic challenger and dialing the negative against Walker to eleven. I get the frustration, but let's holster the pitchforks and hold off poisoning the well for a minute. Also worth noting in rebuttal to my own grievances with Walker's record: Medicaid expansion. Vocal opposition to the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, turning over voter information to the feds, and the travel ban. A commitment to treating our opioid epidemic. A focus on addressing homelessness. Championing Erin's Law. Criminal justice reform. The courage to propose an income tax amidst a historic deficit and legislature with a finger-pointing problem that spent a lot of days not dealing with it.

More are expected, but one candidate has officially filed for the GOP: Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R-Wasilla). His accomplishments include pushing for guns on UA campuses without any required training, a constitutional amendment allowing public funding of private and religious schools, a bill allowing parents to opt students out of any activities pertaining to “human reproduction or sexual matters.” When nobody liked that last bill, he attached it as a poison pill to legislation aimed at providing age appropriate sexual assault and teen violence prevention curricula in schools.

Great pick.

If Alaska winds up in another three-way race, it's 2014 pre-unity ticket again. If Walker drops out, it's back to the dismal poll numbers that favored Parnell. The left can hope for a wave election. 10 of 20 Senate seats are up. Of those, seven of those are safely held by Republicans – 2014's winners enjoyed an average 33-point margin of victory. The closest race was Sen. Mia Costello's (R-Anchorage); still a 13 point advantage. The more (but not really) volatile House districts may see a seat or two flip, but nothing consequential. The only truly volatile component of house races is whether or not the bipartisan coalition survives the election. Governor Dunleavy or someone comparable seals the fate on that one.

Parmley was dismissive of the data, saying “I think it’s gonna be sort of a clown car on [the Republican side[.]”

I just don't get excited about candidates anymore. I care about policies and who lends them their support, and I'll take that option over a flashy candidate if it's a step toward a reality I can stomach. Walker's attempt to stay on a nonpartisan track hasn't wavered, while the Senate minority fights the Senate majority, the House majority fights the House minority, the Senate fights the House, and they all fight the governor.

“I know that hard work is not a partisan effort, but an Alaskan value,” Walker said during his inaugural address. “There is no natural disaster, man-made catastrophe, or fiscal crisis that can withstand the force of the mighty Alaskan spirit. Like a family, we are diverse; we are passionate. Especially when we disagree. But we are all united in a common thread: we are rising as one. We are on that steep climb to our peak.”

I don't think we ever got out of base camp, but Walker's message hasn't changed. He continues to beg everyone else to do their jobs while they blame him for doing his. There's a lot to commend there. I don't see him as a lesser of two (or three) evils. I just see a statesman. We need more of those.

Also, clown cars had an alarmingly good run last year.