Alaska king salmon extinctions

I talked with Northern Cook Inlet Sport Fisheries Management Biologist, Samantha Oslund on Tuesday of this week, and she mentioned the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) king salmon regulations (by emergency order) should be publicized for Upper Cook Inlet sometime this week. In the Mat-Su Valley It sounded like regulations will be similar to what the were last season — with king (Chinook) salmon fishing for ocean-run salmon only allowed at Eklutna Tailrace and in the Knik River side-channel below the tailrace. Legal king salmon fishing this year will be upstream from the ADF&G signs located upstream from where the Knik River side-channel flows into the mainstream Knik River. Look for additional 2025 king salmon emergency regulations for the Mat-Su Valley to be posted on the ADF&G website by the time this column appears in print. (See the online version for the website link).

With the pending emergency regulations it appears that king salmon fishing will once again be closed for all Upper Cook Inlet saltwater and freshwater sport fisheries targeting wild ocean- run fish from May 1 — July 13. With sport king salmon fishing only allowed at Upper Cook Inlet locations with hatchery king salmon returns — One can easily conclude that the sport fishery targeting wild king salmon has gone extinct. This also occurred during 2024, and even with no targeted sport or commercial fishery last year for wild king salmon in Northern Cook Inlet, king salmon spawning escapements continued their downward trend and no wild king salmon escapement goals were attained during the 2024 season. An even more alarming trend, at Deshka River and Little Susitna River weirs very few of the measured king salmon escapement at either river were of the age / sex / length (ASL) at which the female component of the run normally returns. How long can this trend of extremely low spawning escapements combined with the trend of a very low component of large female continue before whole king salmon returns to important king salmon spawning streams will be threatened with extinction?

Rapid Harvest Decline

Consider that ADF&G estimates the combined annual harvests of Northern Cook Inlet origin king salmon topped 20,000 fish every year for the 25-year period from 1984 —2008. ADF&G’s estimated annual combined harvests have dropped to an average of than less than 3,000 fish, for these same king salmon of Northern Cook Inlet origin during the 5-year period from 2019-2023. When all king salmon harvest figures become available for 2024 they are not expected to show any improvement, as the 2024 season was so poor that, even after an inseason sport fishery closure to the hatchery king salmon fishery at Ship Creek, ADF&G was unable to collect enough king salmon salmon eggs to continue Northern Cook Inlet king salmon stocking programs at their previously planned levels. Therefore, while king salmon stocking programs may provide some limited king salmon harvest opportunities in a few locations, they are much too expensive and clearly not the answer for sustaining wild king salmon populations throughout all of Northern Cook Inlet, Upper Cook Inlet, or the entire State of Alaska.

King Salmon Sustainability Issues throughout Alaska

A Chinook Salmon page on ADF&G’s website mentions that king salmon typically measure 36 inches in length and often exceed 30 pounds, but I suspect those are dated figures. Throughout the entire state age / sex / length (ASL) of king salmon returning to rivers and streams has dropped dramatically, with these smaller fish being much less productive (fecund). This web page also mentions major Alaska king salmon populations returning to the Yukon, Kuskokwim , Nushagak, Susitna, Kenai, Copper, Alsek, Taku, and Stikine Rivers. (See the online version for the website link).

On a separate page of the ADF&G website, king salmon stocks from six (6) of these nine (9) rivers with major Alaska king salmon populations are listed as Stocks of Concern. Twelve additional Alaska king ( Chinook) salmon stocks are also listed as Stocks of Concern, further illustrating Alaska king salmon population sustainability issues are wide-spread throughout the state. Note: 18 king salmon stocks, 4 sockeye salmon stocks, and 1 chum salmon stock were listed Alaska’s Stocks of Concern on Feb. 4, 2025. (See the online version for the website link).

Chinook Salmon Research Initiative — $30 million dollar / 5-year study

While Yukon River king salmon declines started years earlier, more wide-spread declines in major Alaska king populations starting in 2007 spurred the Alaska Legislature to allocate 30 million dollars to study Alaska king salmon and help determine what could be causing the declines. A result of these studies, touted by ADF&G, was that the statewide king salmon decline appeared to be caused by a loss in ocean productivity for king salmon / possibly increased mortality of king salmon in the near shore environment during their first year of ocean life. (See the online version for the website link).

Current Nonsolution to Lost Ocean Productivity

A retired ADF&G salmon manager told me that traditionally nearly all Alaska salmon fisheries management is based on the returning number of adult salmon migrating into specific streams. This approach of managing to meet spawning escapement goals works well, when adequate numbers of salmon return to ensure escapement goals can be met, and as long as over harvest or increased mortality events do not occur before the salmon spawn. Since 2007, ADF&G has proven, many times and over several years, without a change in ocean productivity (perhaps achieved through adaptive ADF&G management) restrictions / closures to near or inriver users groups have only slowed the decline in many Alaska king salmon populations. Ocean mortalities of multiple Alaska king salmon populations have increased to the point that even TOTAL EXTINCTIONS of traditional near and inriver harvests are inadequate to maintain specific major Alaska king salmon populations.

(To be Continued) with a discussion of: Correlation of Hatchery Pink Salmon / King Salmon Population & ASL Reductions

Good Luck and Fish On!

Andy Couch currently chairs the Matanuska Borough Fish and Wildlife Commission and is a member of the Matanuska Valley Fish and Game Advisory Committee, however, positions expressed in this column are his own.