State economist speaks at Meadow Lakes community council meeting

WASILLA— Neil Fried, the state economist was the special guest speaker at the Sept. 13 Meadow Lakes Community Council meeting after being invited by president, Patti Fisher.

“That was very entertaining, very informative,” Fisher said.

He gave a snapshot overview of the Mat-Su Valley’s economy and other relevant facts and statistics from across the state.

“It’s really easy to come here because I usually have good news,” Fried said.

Fried explained that the Valley’s economy is tied to many other economic vines, close as Anchorage to the other side of the world.

“It’s one economy, whether you like it or not,” Fried said.

The Valley’s economy of course, is connected to various communities across the state. Anchorage is one of the closest and nearest examples.

“Those two actually have very closely related economies,” Fried said. “I have to

talk about Anchorage because the two are so related.”

Fried said that Alaska’s recession spread across the state in 2016, hitting every community to varying degrees. He said that although the Valley took a blow from the recession but by comparing it to Anchorage, Fairbanks, and other communities, a good number of the statistics show good signs; historically, the Valley’s job losses, population, and other factors have proven to be significantly less sever to everywhere else in Alaska.

“Anchorage in 2016, lost 3,500 jobs. The Valley lost none. You actually gained jobs that year,” Fried said. “We’re slowly losing jobs today, in Anchorage and statewide.”

In 2017, the Valley only lost 84 jobs for about 300,000 people. He said that was “such a small number.”

“The jobs in the Mat-Su Valley basically skipped the recession. That doesn’t mean everyone in the Valley skipped the recession… If you asked for me for a forecast of 2015, I would have predicted much larger job losses in the Mat-Su Valley. I would have been wrong,”

What seems to be “recession proof” in Alaska? According to Fried, it’s beer, local beer that is. While the national numbers of people drinking big name beer is down, places like Alaska are actually drinking more local drafts. The total number of local, draft breweries opening up has steadily increased from 2009, with a slight dip from 2010 to 2013, picking up again in 2014 and skyrocketing upward at a staggering exponential rate. One Valley resident pointed out that the fact that the Mat-Su Valley imports money each year.

“That is correct!” Fried said. “That Mat-Su Borough is one of the few places in the state that imports money, although everywhere else exports money. Most of them export to the lower 48. Anchorage exports to the Valley… A third of the Valley’s income comes from somewhere else.”

“The Matanuska-Susitna Borough is a remarkable location for economic growth and business. As one of the nation’s fastest growing areas, with an estimated population of 100,000 and projections of 130,000 by 2027, opportunities for new and expanding markets are plentiful,” stated on the Matanuska Susitna Borough’s website.

“Your model is way different than most anywhere else in Alaska,” Fried said.

Fried was surprised by many numbers that pertained to the Valley. One example would be the North Slope and other oil jobs. The Mat-Su Valley has a high number of oil-related jobs but still managed to not lose too many jobs- in spite of the oil crash- according to his findings.

The unemployment rate in Alaska has for the most part, stayed fairly flat over the years. Why? Seasonal jobs. The rural Valley with its various scenic adventures spanning across an area the size of West Virginia is a time-tested tourist hot spot.

“We are the most seasonal state in the United States of America,” Fried said.

The largest number of people working in the North Slope in Alaska’s history was in 2015, according to Fried. There was an economic boom then a crash, that we all noticed as we filled up our tanks.

“Were sort of getting past that right now,” Fried said.

A good chunk of Alaska’s economy comes from the oilfield. He said that the oil economy is slow recovering; prices are rising. He pointed to tourism and other avenues to remember. He also noted that the total military spending, particularly from the interior, will help get Alaska “out of the recession.”

“Our economy is more diverse than people think,” Fried said.

Fried said that in 2017 was one of the biggest years for overall visitors in Alaska

“You probably noticed...” Fried said.

There are more people being born in the Valley than those dying, “Natural increase. More people came to the Valley than those who left the Valley, compared to the rest of the state, called “net increase.” Those combined factors are what Fried uses to determine the total population numbers in the Valley and other communities. The valley’s booming population and steady numbers since are what makes it “unique.”

“That’s what makes you unique. Anchorage is gaining by third. Rural Alaska is actually growing faster right now than the rest of the state… you are the only part of the state that’s gaining for two reasons: one is natural increase and more people moving here than out.”

Quick economic stats in the Mat-Su Valley based on Fried’s findings:

50 percent of all new houses in Alaska were built in the Mat-Su Valley

The total number of pick-up truck registrations has gone down in the Valley, down over 1,000

Median Mat-Su household income: $73,908 (Alaska at $76,440 and $57,617 for the U.S.)

Average sales prices of single family home: $287,309 (Anchorage at $378,310 and Fairbanks at $254,435)

Home sales as of 2018: 786

Number of Mat-Su residents who work on the slope in 2016: 2,871*

*this is down from the 3,449 jobs in 2015 but the average number of jobs over 11 years is approximately: 3,046.

Mat-Su’s population represents more than a quarter if the Anchorage/Mat-Su Regions: 26% as of 2017

“You’ve had population growth unlike anywhere else in the state,” he said.