The Primary version of the Swami

I’m donning my turban to channel my inner Swami and predicting this year’s Republican Primary, from the Governor’s race to State Representatives in the Mat-Su Valley. It’s been a long campaign season of knocking on doors, kissing babies (poor kids) and dodging the mudslinging. Some candidates have been more athletic than others on the last one.

The race for the governor seat or the Tournament of Roses (My Lock Pick)

The governor seat is the granddaddy of them all in this year’s political season. Much like the Rose Bowl was the granddaddy of all the New Year’s Day college football games in my youth. Thanks NCAA for making Bowl games pretty much pointless. Mike Dunleavy really started campaigning two years ago for governor. Remember the big announcement in the Fred Meyer parking lot in Anchorage. Dunleavy announced he was introducing a bill that would force the state or more specifically Gov. Bill Walker to pay back the portion of the PFD that was excluded from the people’s checks. The bill had no shot of passing but that was the equivalent of Dunleavy standing on the opponent’s 50-yard line and challenging his opponent with a chest pump.

Although the field was set and Dunleavy was blowing out the other opponent’s lead by Scott Hawkins heading into the fourth quarter, along came the wily old veteran. Pulling out his pads from his trophy case and seeing that they still fit, Mead Treadwell tapped Scott Hawkins on the shoulder whispered in his ear and said, “Sit down son I got this one.”

But by the time Treadwell was able to put together some meaningful offensive drives, the lead was to insurmountable to overcome. Dunleavy will win this one. Treadwell did accomplish one thing. He made Dunleavy tighten up his game. That could be an important factor heading into the general election.

The race for lieutenant governor or the Preakness Stakes (My darkhorse pick)

Every year the Kentucky Derby will garner our attention. Local bars and restaurants will advertise mint julep drink specials and encourage ladies to wear their fancy hats. We’ll watch the race and pick our favorite horse. Then by the second leg of horse racing’s triple crown, the Preakness, we’ve lost interest. We merely check the results just to see if the winner of the Derby is still in play for the triple crown title. Much like the Preakness, most eyes are on the bigger race for governor and barely noticing the lieutenant governor race. That changed with the Walker-Mallott campaign four years ago. Merging to form a super team that took them to the most powerful position in the State.

The Republicans emerged with Kevin Meyer and early on it looked like no one would touch him. The field lined up with a laundry list of opponents for Meyers. Perhaps Lynn Gattis would be his strongest opponent and out of the gate she ran a couple of lengths behind at the quarter-mile pole. Then she began to fade. But from the back of the pack running her own pace was political upstart Edie Grunwald. Starting out as a one-platform candidate on crime, after the murder of her son. Her mindset of ‘something has to change’ and relentless campaigning has pulled her ahead of the rest of the pack chasing Meyer and now is running stride for stride with the leader. Grunwald who has been it seems everywhere in the state the past few months and educated on all issues will pull this one out by a nose at the finish line.

The Race for State Senate E or Leonard vs Hagler (My toss up pick)

Thirty-plus years ago was one of the greatest boxing matches ever fought. The fast feet, quick hands of Sugar Ray Leonard versus the steady punching technician “Marvelous” Marvin Hagler. In the Senate District E race, you have standing toe-to-toe Incumbent by governor appointment Mike Shower against Randall Kolwalke, who was originally tapped by the governor for the seat Mike Dunleavy vacated.

I would equate Mike Shower with Leonard. A student of the game who talks so fast sometimes it can be dizzying. Kowalke is the prodder who speaks like a boxer, who hits the body instead of the constant headshot. Both men should be in Juneau and after sitting down with each for separate interviews. I could see them actually working together on most issues. But such is competition and there will be only one winner. At the end of this match both fighters will be standing at center ring waiting for the judge’s decision. But with the Republican party standing in the corner of Mike Shower that support will be too much for Kowalke to overcome. Shower has become a popular champion of the people by not joining the caucus and walking in their beloved Mike Dunleavy’s footsteps. If this was a general election Kowalke very well could pull off the victory. But it’s not. The strong conservative district will carry Shower in a close split decision.

The House race for District 11 or Byrd vs Magic (My too close to call pick)

In the 1980’s a classic NBA rivalry developed between the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers. The Celtics led by Larry Byrd and the Lakers led by Magic Johnson was arguably the most entertaining period in NBA history. District 11 has shaped up to be a classic in its own right. DeLena Johnson, the incumbent and former Palmer mayor, is facing off against Edna Devries the current Palmer mayor. I was tempted to do a comparison to the old Mad Magazine Spy vs Spy but I’ll stick with the sports theme.

Johnson’s campaign has been the classic stick with what brought you here much like the Celtics did with Red Auerbach as their coach, repurposing signs and campaign videos from 2016. If we followed in her footsteps on the campaign trail we’d probably see her knocking on the exact same doors. While Devries has improvised as she gone through the season much like Lakers head coach Pat Riley would do.

I’ve always subscribed to the coaching philosophy of stick with what got you here and so I have to go with Johnson on this one and predicting a very close one. I’d make the gutsy call of a possible recount at the end of this one but I’m too conservative for such a bold prediction.

The House race for District 8 or a NASCAR Driver vs a Dirt Track Driver (My take it off the board pick)

Incumbent Mark Neuman has treated this primary race as more of a nuisance than a campaign season. He has work to do and no time for upstart candidates. Much like the king of NASCAR Richard Petty would do in his heyday, he’s not paying any attention to his opponent. He’s doing his job as District 8 representative attending community council meetings and listening to their issues. Fighting the state of Alaska on behalf of businesses in his district on the Parks Highway whose right of ways into their businesses are in jeopardy, and the emotionally draining fight of getting Knik-Goose Bay Road to be a safe roadway. Two more deaths on KGB this week alone has Neuman digging deep to get it fixed.

His opponent Andy Murr hasn’t taken his dirt track stock car out of his garage to run tune up laps. He’s been pretty much non-existent. This is a runaway and not worth handicapping. Neuman will be on to the general.

The House race for District 9 or The Cinderella Man (My wild card pick)

Incumbent George Rauscher first was going to run for senator. Vicki Wallner (of the Stop Valley Thieves Facebook page) was going to run for Representative District 9 because Pam Goode entered the race. Rauscher reenters to retain his seat and Wallner ends her campaign citing health issues. All along flying under the radar to regain his title as District 9 representative is Jim Colver. While the District 9 republican leaders back Rauscher, the far right of the party backs ultra-conservative Pam Goode. Colver spent the last two years regaining his political strength and working to become the grass roots champion of the district much like James J Braddock the people’s champion boxer of the Great Depression era. Braddock was on top of the boxing world only to fall out of grace because of injuries and trying to put food on the plates of his family during the American workers’ darkest time. Much like Braddock, Colver is rising from the ashes of his defeat to Rauscher in 2016 and with the Republican Party hardliners diverting their attention from Colver and splitting their votes between Rauscher and Goode. Colver is poised to be that candidate who emerges as the victor. And like Braddock’s return as champion I’m predicting Colver will win and the hardliners will be left that classic question. “What the hell happened?”. And like Braddock, Colver will be dubbed the Cinderella Man.