The Swami returns to predict the 2018 Mat-Su Borough election

The Mat-Su Borough and city of Palmer will hold elections on Tuesday, and there is a lot at stake. The Swami has researched the races and ballot issues and made his predictions. Remember these are not endorsements and the predictions are not predicated on polls or who has raised the most money. The predictions are based on conversations with members of the community and gut feelings.

Let’s start with the Mat-Su Borough.

Borough Mayor

Incumbent Mayor Vern Halter faces off against outspoken, unabashed candidate Bruce Walden. Although Walden has support from the borough’s detractors, his rhetoric is probably too much for most voters. Have you seen the video interviews in his car on his campaign website? He discusses everything from refuse control to immigration. I’ve heard Walden speak at various meetings and he gets sidetracked from the issue at hand very easily. I don’t think Walden loses in a landslide; it will be more like a full-on tsunami.

Halter takes this one easily.

Borough Assembly District 6

Jesse Sumner is taking on incumbent Barb Doty in this race. Sumner is turning heads as a well-spoken candidate who can bring new ideas to the table. The problem for Sumner is he is going against, not only a popular sitting assembly member, but a well respected member of our community. Doty has years of public service on her resume. As a member of the assembly Doty seems to scrutinize everything that comes before her. We now have a plastic bag ban in Wasilla and Palmer and it all started with Doty supporting the idea at the borough level. She’s a thorn in the side of the staunch conservatives who would like to see Sumner sitting in her seat. Doty will prevail. It won’t be close, but it won’t be an overwhelming victory either.

Borough Assembly District 7

District 7 has three candidates vying for Randall Kowalke’s seat on the assembly. Getting involved with District 7 politics is like riding the toughest bull in the rodeo. All you can do is pray you can hang on for 8 seconds. There is no incumbent for Tamara “Tam” Boeve, Dennis “Dan” Dees or Walter Kloepfer to overcome. This is a tough one to call. Partisan politics is not supposed to play a part in municipality elections, but as a very good friend pointed out, with the country riveted on the Kavanaugh hearings how can it not? Boeve is a staunch liberal, while Dees and Kloepfer are conservatives. Boeve would easily take the liberal sect in Talkeetna and Kloepfer has the support of the fringe extreme right. This leaves Dees open to take the middle. I’m predicting Dees to win, but I won’t predict the margin of victory.

Advisory Vote on Police Powers Proposition No. B-1

The question on the ballot is should the Matanuska-Susitna Borough investigate and consider steps to develop a proposal to voters that adds police powers to its responsibilities?

Crime in the valley is a hot topic and we need more police. Will the voters want to move forward with the borough seeking police powers?

The thought of the amount of taxes that would be involved in granting the borough the police powers will push any informed voter away. It’s one of those ‘don’t ask the question you don’t want to know the answer to, or if you have to ask what it costs, you can’t afford it’ situations.

The voters will vote no on Prop B-1 and keep the pressure on the State to provide police services to the Valley outside of the cities of Wasilla and Palmer.

Proposition No. B-2: The Road Bonds

Will the voters approve the road bond proposition? They will. The roadway infrastructure in the borough is suffering. Most recognize and want improvements. I would be shocked if the voters don’t approve this one.

Proposition No B-3: Changing the date of the Borough elections

Will the voters vote to move the borough elections from the first Tuesday in October to the first Monday in November? Do people like change? Do people like spending money to make change that doesn’t have an affect on their day to day lives? Sure, you can argue that borough elections does have an affect on our day to day lives but if everyone felt that way wouldn’t they go vote no matter what day the election is held.

The argument boils down to move the election for better participation because more folks turn out for national and state elections. While the other side is saying it’s not worth the cost to taxpayers. People vote with their wallets and in this case that will give this proposition a ‘no’ vote. Two things folks don’t care for is change and spending money.

Palmer City Council elections

Longtime and current Deputy Mayor Richard Best, current city councilperson vying for a second term Pete LaFrance and Julie Berberich seeking her first term are facing off for two positions on the council. Berberich and her husband Tony own the popular Backcountry Bike and Ski shop in Palmer. Best and LaFrance will be tough to unseat but anything can happen in a three-way race for two seats. The last election saw upstart Sabrina Combs unseat city council member Linda Combs. Sabrena Combs is married to Linda Combs’ nephew. Linda Combs would later be back on the council filling Brad Hansen’s seat who was the third candidate involved in the previous election. Whew, what a merry-go round that was. Can Berberich unseat Best or LaFrance? I am predicting she doesn’t but in a community that is growing in progressives, Best could be vulnerable. No need to brush up on the musical chairs game rules this time. Best and LaFrance keep on keeping on.

Mat-Su Borough District School Board

District 1 has challenger Thomas Bergey going against incumbent Debby Retherford. There will be a shake-up here. Bergey has been out spoken about a need for change on the board and the voters will listen. Bergey will win.

District 4 has challenger Brittany Harvey taking on incumbent Sarah Welton. Both have been visible on the campaign trail. Harvey, the wife of current Wasilla Deputy Mayor James Harvey, has run a visible campaign but it won’t be enough to unseat Welton. Welton wins.

Again these are only predictions and not endorsements by either myself or the Frontiersman. We will have your election coverage online at frontiersman.com Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Download our app by searching Frontiersman in your favorite app store and stay current of community news.