Tiebreakers could decide playoff fate

MAT-SU — On the master schedule, the eighth contest of the year is officially listed as part of the final week of the regular season.

But unofficially, for three Mat-Su prep football programs, it’s already playoff time.

This weekend, Colony, Wasilla and Houston will all be fighting for their playoff lives.

Wasilla currently stands in third place of the Railbelt Conference with a 3-2 mark, while Colony is tied with North Pole for fourth at 2-3.

Houston (3-2) is locked in a second-place tie with Valdez in the Greatland Conference.

Teams such as Colony and Wasilla can sift through a somewhat complicated list of tiebreakers and playoff sceneries to help gauge their postseason chances. But in reality, both the Knights and the Warriors face must-win situations.

“We win, we’re in,” Wasilla head coach Jim Shetter said on Monday. “That’s our four-word motto for the week. We win, we're in.”

Wasilla hosts Palmer in the annual Potato Bowl on Friday at 7 p.m. at Veterans Memorial Field, while Colony meets Lathrop (1-4) on Saturday at 4 p.m. at Colony High School.

Palmer is the only team in the Valley that is definitely in the playoffs. With a 28-8 win over North Pole on Saturday, the Moose secured one of the Railbelt’s four spots in the large-schools tournament. Now the Moose (4-1) can finish no worse than third in the conference.

“It’s just us and Wasilla for second,” Palmer head coach Rod Christiansen said after the win Saturday.

With a win over the Warriors on Friday, Palmer would cement itself into second place — first-place Juneau-Douglas has already won the Railbelt crown with a perfect 6-0 record — and the Moose would host the conference’s third seed during the first-round of the playoffs.

A Wasilla victory over the Moose would leave both the Warriors and Moose with identical 4-2 records. Wasilla’s win in head-to-head play would give the Warriors the tiebreaker, and second-seeded Wasilla would host third-seeded Palmer.

But with a Wasilla loss, things get much more complicated.

With a Wasilla loss to Palmer, a Colony win over Lathrop and a North Pole win over West Valley on Saturday, the Warriors, Knights and Patriots would all finish the regular season at 3-3 in conference play.

The first tiebreaker used by the conference is head-to-head play. Each squad in the trio of deadlocked teams would be 1-1 in head-to-head play against each other.

North Pole beat Wasilla, but lost to Colony.

Wasilla beat Colony, but lost to North Pole.

And Colony beat North Pole, but lost to Wasilla.

The next tiebreaker that can be used is defensive points allowed within the conference.

Colony has currently allowed the fewest points, 76, among the three teams. Wasilla has allowed 94, and North Pole has given up 117.

If Çolony, Wasilla and North Pole do finish at 3-3, and Colony ends the season with the least points allowed among the three, the Knights would get a playoff berth. That would leave Wasilla and North Pole, and the Patriots would have the tiebreaker due to the win over the Warriors in head-to-head play.

If Lathrop upsets Colony on Saturday, Wasilla would get into the playoffs regardless of whether the Warriors win or lose Friday.

If West Valley beats North Pole on Saturday, Wasilla would also get in regardless of the outcome of the Potato Bowl.

If Colony and North Pole both lose, the teams would be tied at 2-4. Wasilla would get in, and the Knights would clinch, thanks to Colony’s win over North Pole earlier this season.

The Greatland playoff race is much more simple. Eielson (5-0) is the conference champ, and will host the second-seed from the Northern Lights Conference during the first week of the postseason.

The final Greatland berth will be decided on Saturday when Houston hosts Valdez at 2 p.m. at Houston High School. Both teams are 3-2 in Greatland play, and the winner advances to the playoffs.

“You’re in control of your own destiny,” Houston head coach Norm Bouchard said Monday. “It’s nice to be able to say that.”

Last season, Houston’s playoff hopes came down to a coin toss, the final tiebreaker in the Greatland Conference.

“This is a lot better than odd man out,” Bouchard said.

Contact Frontiersman sports editor Jeremiah Bartz at sports@frontiersman.com.