Tuesday’s primary election saw moderate Republicans ousted; big victory for conservatives

Results in state the state primary election last Tuesday brought an unsettling surprise for many incumbent legislators, including leaders in the House and Senate.

Thousands of absentee and questioned ballots remained to be counted but challengers to several veteran Republican lawmakers, mostly political moderates, hold leads that may be difficult to overcome.

Conservative Republicans appear big winners. They were elected in the “closed” Republican primary in which only Republicans and nonaffiliated voters are allowed to cast ballots.

While it’s still early, and absentee and questioned ballots have yet to be counted, the apparent ouster of moderate Republicans will give new life to Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s quest for a “full” Permanent Fund Dividend payment to citizens following a formula set in state law, as well as retroactive payments for several years that PFDs were paid at amounts below the formula.

Senate moderates and a coalition in the House of Democrats and moderate Republicans blocked Dunleavy’s PFD initiatives, arguing they were unaffordable in times of tight revenues. Things may change with newly elected Republicans, however.

The biggest defeats, if the trend holds, will be of the moderate Senate Republican leadership that includes Senate President Cathy Giessel, a Republican moderate who has represented her hillside district in Anchorage for years, and Sen. Natasha von Imhof, who represents south Anchorage and cochairs the Senate Finance Committee, an important position.

Reps. Chuck Kopp and Jennifer Johnston, Republicans in south Anchorage who had “crossed over” party lines to join Democrats in organizing the state House two years ago, may also be defeated if large leads by their challengers hold up.

Kopp chairs the House Rules Committee and Johnston is cochair of the House Finance Committee in the current Legislature. Both are influential positions.

Giessel, von Imhof, Johnston and Kopp were targeted by conservative Republican Party activists in Anchorage who want to ensure a solid-Republican block in the state House after January that may well be in the majority. In a closed election with a very low voter turnout, which is typical for primary elections, even a small group of voters with similar views can have an unusually large impact.

Meanwhile, in the Mat-Su, Rep. Mark Neuman, R-Big Lake, a veteran legislator, may not survive a big lead held by his challenger, Kevin McCabe.

However, two other Republican incumbents in the Mat-Su, Rep. George Rausch and Rep. David Eastman hold leads. Eastman was leading Jesse Sumner by 79 votes as of Wednesday.

Incumbent Republican Sen. David Wilson was leading his challenger, Steve Wright, by 249 votes on Wednesday. While this is tight, Wilson is expected to prevail after absentee are counted.

In Fairbanks, Republican Sen. John Coghill, a long-serving lawmaker, is also in a race for reelection that is still too tight to call. Coghill was behind his challenger, Robert Myers, by 126 votes on Wednesday. Another race too close to call is the reelection of Rep. Steve Thompson’s for reelection, another veteran Republican and former Fairbanks mayor. Thompson led his challenger, Dave Salle, by 13 votes as of Wednesday. Absentee ballots will decide this race.

Veteran Sen. Gary Stevens, of Kodiak, also Republican, is narrowly trailing a challenger, John Cox, but absentee ballots will decide this, too.

Absentee ballots will be counted next week, which will decide the tight races.