Upper Cook Inlet sockeye salmon forecast 2025

On Monday January 27 the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) released the department’s forecast for totals of sockeye salmon returning to the Kenai River, Kasilof River, Susitna River, Fish Creek, and unmonitored sockeye systems within Upper Cook Inlet (UCI) north of Anchor Point — with the following caveat:

“Forecasts of salmon fisheries are inherently uncertain and are primarily used to gauge the general magnitude of expected runs and guide early season management strategies.”

This year’s forecast is for a total return of 6.93 million sockeye salmon to Upper Cook Inlet. ADF&G’s forecast for 6.93 million sockeye in 2025 clearly falls in the department’s highest general magnitude forecast classification. The department classifies UCI sockeye salmon returns in five broad categories:

Poor — less than 4.2 million sockeye (less than 20th percentile of historical)

Weak — ranging from 4.2 to 5.2 million sockeye (20 - 40th percentile)

Average — ranging from 5.2 to 5.9 million sockeye (40 - 60th percentiles)

Strong — ranging from 5.9 to 6.5 million sockeye (60 - 80th percentiles)

Excellent — returns greater than 6.5 million sockeye (greater than 80th percentile)

Using the Department’s rounded numbers approximate sockeye salmon returns spread throughout Upper Cook Inlet call for:

Kenai River — 4.19 million sockeye

Kasilof River — 1.24 million sockeye

Susitna River — .40 million sockeye

Fish Creek. — .11 million sockeye

Unmonitored Systems — .99 million sockeye

It is interesting to note, ADF&G mentions 5 different methods considered to forecast Kenai River and Kasilof River sockeye returns (the two largest in Upper Cook Inlet), For Susitna River sockeye only one forecasting method was mentioned. For Fish Creek sockeye only one method of forecasting was mentioned, and for all the unmonitored systems only one method of forecasting was mentioned. In addition it appears the methods used for forecasting Susitna, Fish Creek, and unmonitored systems were all different —- and none of those methods appear to be used in forecasting either the Kenai or Kasilof sockeye salmon returns. This begs the question, could Susitna River, Fish Creek, and the unmonitored Upper Cook Inlet sockeye systems produce significantly more sockeye salmon if they were managed in a similar fashion to the Kenai and Kasilof Rivers?

Large inseason abundances and increased harvests of Kenai River sockeye salmon (usually made through additional commercial fishing time in the Central District of Upper Cook Inlet) have often resulted in larger harvest of Northern Cook Inlet (including Mat-Su Valley) salmon migrating through the Central District at the same time. The result being that fewer of the already less abundant northern bound salmon make it to Northern Cook Inlet with even fewer making it to the streams draining into Northern Cook. Inlet. In 2024 with a 5.12 million sockeye forecast, but postseason estimated sockeye return of 6.65 million sockeye , only one of the four coho salmon goals for Northern Cook Inlet / Upper Cook Inlet was met. The recent trend in Upper cook Inlet coho salmon catches has been declining.

In the past I believe ADF&G used to forecast coho salmon harvest as an average of the past 5 years of harvest, but here is how coho salmon, chum salmon, and pink salmon were mentioned in ADF&G’s 2025 forecast:

5-year average commercial harvests:

Coho salmon 99,000

Pink salmon 86,800 (odd years)

Chum salmon 79,800

“Recent Harvest Discussion

Due to the lack of information, the department does not formally forecast these species. The recent 5-year average commercial harvests are presented for chum and coho salmon (Table 5). Pink salmon commercial harvest average is based upon the previous 5 odd-numbered years (Table 5). Harvests in these years represent current management strategies. In 2025, harvest opportunities will be based on inseason information.”

Since coho salmon harvests and measured escapements from the Upper Cook Inlet coho systems with escapement goals have been declining — and the department intends to manage the start of the commercial fishery based on a total UCI sockeye salmon forecast in their highest of 5 categories — What will ensure that Northern Cook Inlet coho salmon stocks and coho salmon sport fisheries are adequately protected? By the time inseason weir counts are definitive, from upriver Mat-Su locations as proven again in 2024, it may be too late.

Interested individuals may read the Department’s 2025 Forecast press announcement along with accompanying graphs and tables here.

Good luck, Stay Safe, and Fish On!