Valley legislators spend too much time in shallow end

Frontiersman editorial board

Is it wishful thinking on the part of progressives and liberals, paranoia or gamesmanship on the part of conservatives, or is the political climate in the Valley really moving more toward the middle? Speculation always heats up around election time, and the close races and controversies of 2004 have driven that speculation to a fever pitch.

Rep. Beverly Masek has been defeated, and the race for her seat is impossible to call. If Mark Neuman is defeated it will be the first time in 10 years the seat will be occupied by a non-Republican. Vic Kohring and Lyda Green have been virtual shoe-ins for the past 10 years as well, but those races are also tighter than usual.

It's likely the growing population in the Valley is having an effect upon the political climate, and the fact that many of the Valley's new residents are arriving from more urban communities suggests that they're more used to bigger government and more well-developed infrastructure, and that sounds like a shift toward the left would be in order.

The truth is never as easy as pundits would like it be, though. What's more likely is that the Valley isn't as far right-wing as conventional wisdom claims. The largest contingent of Valley voters are either undeclared or unaffiliated, and it's likely that the majority of them are moderate -- leaning either slightly to the left or slightly to the right on most issues and a bit further in one direction or the other on only a few critical issues. Those voters are less likely to show up at the polls unless something dramatic is visible on the political landscape, and they're likely to be motivated by issues more than by party politics. In 1994, when Republicans swept into control of the Valley, one of the big issues was gun ownership and the conceal/carry question. Conservatives held the populist ground on that issue, and it helped to carry them to victory.

Over the past two years, the CBM issue and personal property rights have lit a fire of controversy in the Valley, and this time it's a more liberal view that has resonated with the moderates. While people to the far right and left debated the issue, it was the chorus of moderate voices demanding to be protected that caught Valley legislators by surprise.

We're not likely to see a complete reversal of political fortunes in 2004, but there will almost certainly be at least one less Republican legislator from the Valley and possibly as many as three. In any case, the lesson of 2004 should be that political fortunes are not determined at the far right or left, but in the middle, where most voters reside. Our legislators would do well to spend less time in the shallow ends of the pool and more time swimming in the deep middle with the majority of their constituents.