Valley squads in playoff race

The 2002 Alaska prep football regular season is down to its last week. Some teams are playing for a shot into the postseason and others are playing for a higher seed in the playoff bracket.

Colony, Palmer and Wasilla notched their playoff berths nearly a month ago, but the Northern Raibelt Conference championship is still on the line.

Also on the line is a number one seed in the upcoming state playoffs.

Wasilla currently stands in first place in the conference with a 5-0 record. Colony is second at 5-1, while Palmer holds the third spot at 4-1.

Colony has concluded its six-game conference season. The conference champion and the winner of the first seed in the playoffs will come down to the Palmer and Wasilla contest at Machetanz field tonight.

There are several possible scenarios. Each school can still share at least a part of the conference crown, and Colony and Wasilla have the best shot at the first seed.

If Wasilla defeats Palmer, the Warriors would win the conference title outright and earn a first seed in the playoffs.

If Palmer pulls out the win, the playoff picture becomes much more complicated.

With a Moose win, Palmer, Wasilla and Colony would each finish 5-1 and be named co-champions of the Northern Railbelt Conference.

That is the simple part. Figuring out the seeding maybe as complicated as an SAT question.

A series of tiebreakers is used to determine the seeds. The first tiebreaker is head to head record. If Palmer wins, each school would have a 1-1 record in that category.

The second tiebreaker is common nonconference opponents. The Valley schools have no common nonconference opponents, so that method is useless.

The third and possibly deciding tiebreaker is defensive points allowed within conference games.

Currently Wasilla has only allowed 57 points in conference matches, while Colony has allowed 71 points (and has finished its schedule already) and Palmer has given up 99 points. Palmer is most likely out of the running for the first seed in the playoffs.

If Palmer were to score 15 or more points in a win over Wasilla, the Knights would earn the top seed and host Lathrop or West Valley.

Even if the Moose win, the odds are they will not be hosting a first round playoff game due to the tiebreakers.

With 99 points allowed in conference matches thus far, Palmer would have to shut out Wasilla by at least a 43-0 score to earn the right to the second seed and host a playoff game.

If you want to make everything even more complicated, check out this scenario.

If Palmer were to beat Wasilla 14-13 (which happened in 1985), there could be a tie-breaker in the tie-breaker. That score would mean that Wasilla and Colony would have each given up 71 points against conference opponents.

If that were the case, the winner of the first seed may come down to a coin flip.

The first seed of the Northern Railbelt Conference will host the winner of the Lathrop and West Valley game. The second and the third seeds will both come from the Valley, with the second seed earning the right to host the game.