Vickers needs studs on his tires

Hello, Frontiersman readers. Ivan Moore here, checking in for the first of a series of weekly columns running through the Nov. 4 General Election.

Who’s doing what to who, how they’re doing it, whether it’s working and whether they should even bother will all be discussed. Oh, that’s right, we’re talking about the races this fall for the U.S. House and Senate. The Anchorage Press and Frontiersman (both published by Wick Communications), KTUU Channel 2 and KENI 650 AM have banded together to conduct a few polls through the election season. The first is done, so hang onto your hats, here are the results.

We’ve got the daft primary ballot choice again this year, so first the “ADL” ballot. That’s the one with Alaska Independence, Democrat and Libertarian candidates on it.

On the Congress side, Ethan Berkowitz is going to win, hands down, no question.

Candidate Percent

Ethan Berkowitz 58

Diane Benson 24.1

Don Wright 2.9

Undecided 15.0

For the U.S. Senate, I didn’t even bother running the question. Mark Begich is going to win. Back in mid-July, Begich had just shy of 80 percent and nobody else even cracked double digits, Ray Metcalfe included. OK, switching to the Republican side, let’s look at the Congressional race — and it’s a hot one.

Candidate Percent

Don Young 45.9

Sean Parnell 40.4

Gabrielle Ledoux 7.4

Undecided 6.2

Despite his legal woes, Don Young is hanging on to the lead in this race. That’s what the closed Republican primary will do, folks— ensure your weaker candidate gets elected. Three weeks ago, Young was 8 points in the lead, so Parnell’s closing, but he’s got some work to do still.

As for the U.S. Senate, inquiring minds want to know: Is Vic Vickers getting any traction? Is his giant statewide TV buy convincing anyone to dump Ted Stevens? Let’s face it, he’s been indicted for goodness sakes.

Candidate Percent

Ted Stevens 62.7

Dave Cuddy 20.4

Vic Vickers 6.6

Other 2.9

Undecided 7.4

Vic, I recommend a couple of things. First, pull the buy. Second, Pirelli tires with a high quality tungsten carbide stud work best in Alaska winters. That’s assuming you stick around.

To the general election, here are some poll results for U.S. Senate:

Candidate Percent

Mark Begich, D 55.5

Ted Stevens, R 38.5

Bob Bird, AIP 2.3

Fredrick Haase, L 0.4

Undecided 3.3

Immediately post-indictment, the gap was greater than 20 points, so that has closed slightly. But considering Sevens facing possible jail time, I still see only one realistic way he gets close to winning this contest, and that’s full acquittal on all seven counts.

And for Congress, two races were run. Like Stevens, Don Young may find that it’s one thing to win the primary, another to win the general:

Candidate Percent

Ethan Berkowitz, D 51.3

Don Young, R 40.6

Don Wright, AIP 3.9

Undecided 4.2

Parnell, if he gets through the primary, matches up better in the general:

Candidate Percent

Ethan Berkowitz, D 41.7

Sean Parnell, R 46.0

Don Wright, AIP 3.2

Undecided 9.1

That’s it. Primary in two weeks. As usual, the disclaimer that these are not predictions, just where things are at now. We’ll be doing three more polls, all in September and October, that will give an interesting tracking of these races and the race for President as well.

Ivan Moore is an Anchorage pollster who runs Ivan Moore Research.