Where have Copper River king salmon gone?

The Copper River upriver fisheries provide Mat-Su Valley and many other Alaskans residents subsistence, personal use, and sport fishing opportunities to harvest some fo the earliest running salmon of the season. Through early to mid July Copper River provides many Alaskans their most significant opportunity to harvest fresh salmon for their own consumption. Attaining enough salmon upriver to provide for these fisheries is dependent upon conservative commercial fishery management that allows sufficient salmon to migrate upstream past the commercial fishery. When excessive commercial harvest occurs before sufficient upstream salmon migration is allowed, there is significant risk salmon spawning escapement needs may not be met — and / or the more conservative upstream fisheries may need to be restricted or closed in belated efforts to more closely reach escapement objectives. Personal use king salmon harvest and sport king salmon harvest were both closed inseason during the 2021 season due to king salmon shortages — even the upriver subsistence king salmon fishery was closed to harvest for more than a month starting June 28, 2021.

Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) King Salmon Forecast

The department has forecasted a total return of 40,000 Copper River king (Chinook) salmon for the 2022 season — which is a larger forecast than the 37,000 forecast for 2021. Even so, my rough math indicates (forecasted total return 40,000 minus the escapement goal range of 21,000 — 31,000) the harvestable surplus Copper River king salmon may be 9,000 — 19,000 king salmon according to ADF&G’s best scientific data.

Commercial Harvests

May 16 commercial harvest — 12,737 sockeye and 2,830 king salmon. Large king salmon harvest. Less than projected sockeye harvest. Dependent upon stock composition of harvested king salmon up to 15- 31% of the projected harvestable surplus king salmon may have been taken in this one opening.

Even though sockeye harvest was less than projected in the first opening and upriver sonar counts of salmon were at less than management objective level a second opening was allowed 3 days latter on May 19.

May 19 commercial harvest — 11,698 sockeye and 2,670 king salmon. Another large king salmon harvest and an even lower sockeye harvest. Dependent upon stock composition of harvested king salmon up to 14- 29% of the projected harvestable surplus king salmon may have been taken in the second opening.

Commercial fishing was not allowed on May 23, however, despite upstream salmon sonar count passage failing to attain even a single daily management objective (sonar counts were started on May 17) commercial fishing was allowed on May 26.

May 26 commercial harvest — 69,338 sockeye and 1,976 king salmon. Dependent upon stock composition of harvested king salmon up to 10 — 22% of the projected harvestable surplus king salmon may have been taken during the third May opening.

Commercial fishing was not allowed on May 30.

Total reported commercial king salmon harvest during the three May openings was 7,476 fish. Up to 39 — 83% of the 2022 harvestable surplus Copper River king salmon may have been taken before upriver state subsistence and personal use fisheries opened for the season. These commercial openings occurred with Zero daily ADF&G sonar count management objectives achieved during the entire month of May and with the May cumulative sonar count also far behind management objective level. With such aggressive commercial management, the department’s next action appears entirely predictable:

June 1 — ADF&G announced that the opening date for the upriver Chitina personal use fishery for Alaska residents would be delayed from June 7 to June 11 with the caveat, “The high water and late run timing will likely make dipnetting a challenge for the opening.”

Even with large commercial king salmon harvests having already occurred — and with the upriver personal use opening delayed, because of a shortage of salmon migrating past the sonar, and with the upstream sonar count significantly behind ADF&G’s own cumulative management objective level — a commercial opening was granted for June 2.

June 2 commercial harvest — 84,555 sockeye and 1,016 king salmon. Up to 5 — 11% of the projected harvestable surplus Copper River king salmon may have been taken in the fourth commercial opening. Cumulatively up to 45 — 94% of harvestable Copper River king salmon may have been taken commercially before the closest upriver fishery — the Chitina personal use fishery has opened for the season.

Copper River sonar salmon counts exceeded daily management objectives on June 1, 2, 3 although the cumulative sonar count was still 79,000 below management objective level through June 3. On June 4 ADF&G announced the next commercial opening for Monday June 6. With the potential for another commercial opening on June 9 — it remains to be seen how many king salmon will be harvested before the Chitina personal use fishery opens on June 11.

King salmon harvest is scheduled to be allowed during the first Chitina personal use opening — which will last 24 hours from noon June 11 until noon June 12. With the large number of king salmon already harvested in the commercial fishery, and more scheduled to be harvested, how long will the Chitina personal use fishery remain open to an annual king salmon harvest of one king salmon per household?

How long will Copper River drainage sport fisheries remain open to a one king salmon daily / 4 king salmon annual harvest?

Will low upstream king salmon migration numbers necessitate king salmon harvest restrictions or another harvest closure in the Glennallen subdistrict Copper River subsistence fishery?

If you are an Alaska resident personal use, sport, or subsistence fisher hoping to harvest a few Copper River king salmon during 2022, I wish you Godspeed and Good Luck!

Andy Couch is a Matanuska-Susitna Borough fishing guide who has participated in Copper River subsistence, personal use, and sport salmon fisheries. The views he presented in this column are his own and some of the data was previously posted in fishing reports on his https://www.fish4salmon.com website.