Winter forecast no easy task

MARY AMES

Frontiersman reporter

MAT-SU - The online version of the Farmers' Almanac says that when a persimmon seed is shaped like a spoon, the coming winter will be harsh, with heavy, wet snow. A fork-shaped persimmon seed means the coming winter will be mild, with light, powdery snow. And a knife-shaped persimmon seed means cutting winter winds.

If you are out of persimmon seeds, an abundance of acorns means a hard winter. Of course, here in the Valley, you would be hard-pressed to find persimmons and acorns.

What we do have to predict the coming winter weather is the National Climate Data Center, located in Maryland. For predictions on Alaska weather, the CDC monitors 13 sites in the entire state. For regional predictions, it monitors Anchorage, Palmer and Kenai.

"They don't have the database for Alaska," said Sam Albanese, meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

People need to take all long-range weather predictions with an incredibly large grain of salt, according to Albanese.

"I don't even want to go there, if it's not within three or four days," he said.

But looking over the climate data maps online, his interpretation is that the experts say it is going to be average or slightly above for both temperatures and precipitation.

Albanese cautions that in most places in the Lower 48, and some places in Alaska, warmer than normal temperatures mean more rain or snow.

"But warmer means windier in the Valley," he said. "I know from experience that when it's windy in Anchorage or the Valley, the mouth of the Susitna and Trapper Creek just gets buried in snow."

If you can't believe in folklore predictions, and the science of climate predictions is iffy, you might have to use your experience and common sense as you face the coming months of cold and dark.

"Prepare for a normal winter," Albanese said. "That way, you'll be prepared for anything."

Contact Mary Ames at

352-2284 or mary.ames@

frontiersman.com.